The reformists don’t see themselves coming.

FotografĂ­a de una calle del centro de la ciudad de La HabanaPhotograph of a street in the center of Havana (Foto EFE)

HAVANA, Cuba. – The hard-line retransmitters have been reinforced within the Cuban regime. The situation in Venezuela and the hardening of US policy towards Cuba, with its repercussions on the economy, have made them entrenched in fear and harden their discourse.

Not in vain did the term “communism”, which had been taken out of the draft, return, “which turns the stork to the bell tower”, to the final text of the new Constitution. And those who oppose irrevocable socialism and the single party are also threatened with arms and the most severe punishment.

The struggles perceived at heights have ceased. It’s not a good time for moderates and reformists to show up. One only hears the continuous monologue, monotonous, repetitive, that always appeals to the past.

One or another provincial secretary of the Communist Party sometimes shows some concern for the improvement of the living conditions of the population, especially if a disaster occurs, such as the recent tornado. But those few are surpassed, in number and influence, by the indolent and incapable officials and the corrupt.

The ministers, after Diaz-Canel ordered them to have accounts in Twiter, do nothing but repeat slogans and “teques” badly written and even with spelling mistakes. Instead of interacting with the population and responding to their concerns, as they are supposed to do, they show their arrogance and arrogance by blocking those who question them.

Moderates and reformers don’t see it coming. And those of us who are for democracy and not for a poor mockery of it, should be glad that they do not appear.

The changes in these regimes, when led by people emanating from the communist order, usually do not bring good results. They derive easily into authoritarian governments and little attachment to legality. This is demonstrated by the experience of Eastern Europe. The most successful transitions occurred in Germany and Czechoslovakia, where former communist regime officials and their political police servants were completely removed from power. On the contrary, in countries where former communists and repressors retained quotas of power, they hindered change, continued corruption and even blackmailed democrats.

Putin’s Russia, Belarus and some former Soviet republics of Central Asia are the extreme cases of failed transitions. Something like this could happen in Cuba if the changes, as in those countries, are led by characters of the communist nomenclature.

In order to stop the recycled of the nomenclature and the ex-insurers and prevent them from hindering and mediaticating the changes, a strong, coherent, determined, and sure opposition leadership would be needed of where their steps are heading.

Forgive me for being frank and pessimistic, but this moment of definitions, however critical the situation of the regime may be, still seems distant.

The opponents, beyond their courage in confronting repression, have not yet formed a united, solid and coherent front. And the population, no matter how unhappy they may be, cannot escape the marasmus of fear, apathy and inertia achieved by 60 years of dictatorship. It was demonstrated in the recent constitutional referendum. We know that the regime manipulated the results, that the irregularities were to tutiplĂ©n, that must be more than two million who did not vote, opted for the No or annulled the ballots. How many could it have been? Thirty and a half, 40%? Poor consolation to settle for that. At this point, with so much dissatisfaction, judging by what you hear people commenting on in the street, it’s so that the polling places would have been empty, or so that the No would have been overwhelmingly majority. But I didn’t. Let us not deceive ourselves: the vote for Yes will not have been as forceful as the official media say, it will have been less than what was announced, but there is no doubt that it was a majority.

When all those people who voted Yes out of fear, out of inertia, out of the imbecile lack of vision that “it doesn’t matter to them”, decide to break the inertia, come out of lying and simulation, demand their rights and refuse to meekly accept the impositions of the regime, then one way or another, the moment of change will come.

Not only among the population there is hypocrisy and simulation, there is also hypocrisy among many government officials and Communist Party officials, who are aware of the disaster, but who remain crouched and do not stop applauding, waiting for the moment – more opportunistic than opportunistic – to take their heads off the parapet, go through reformers and save what they can from their power and privileges. Hopefully, by then, the real democrats will be prepared to stop the horse and not allow them the tricks and the deception.